Your question was: I have a domain on godaddy.com how do I block my domain from people doing a whois on it?.
Having just prepared 6 budgets for my "real" job, I can tell you that the first things we cut were advertising and marketing. It's two related problems: We have less money coming in to spend, and marketing is less important when people aren't spending...
I agree....people are nervous about the economy....Plus, I think LLL.com owners are now pricing them out of this market - asking far too much, for value.
Really? I think I would be looking for another job if I were you. When things get tough, the tough get going. Sounds like your lot are about to roll over!..
When you get your MBA, and/or run a business, let me know. In a bad economy you contract and strategically cut so that you are primed to expand and strengthen in a good economy. It's business 101. Check the financials of any Fortune 500 this year.
So, when the economy gets tough, and people have to spend $60 to fill up their tanks and an extra 25% on food, while they worry about the next round of layoffs at their work, you think it's a good time to expand your advertising budget? I hope it works, because if not, you'll be laying off some people yourself and your competitors who experience a stronger bottom line because they had the guts to contract will be poised to overtake your company when the economy improves but you're in deep debt from all that spending vs. lower revenue...
Agreed, you have to cut your cloth, but it sounds like you are cutting your throat.
Most companies carry a lot of high fixed cost which they cannot easily reduce, so minimising your loss or even maintaining your profits means keeping your through put as high as possible. You are never going to achieve that if you cut your advertising budget. Yes, try to get value for money, but don't kill the goose that lays the golden eggs.
What you must do is increase the efficiency of your internal processes so that you get more out of less and that probably means reducing your staffing levels or at least cutting out over-time payments. But again you need to be careful not to destroy your skills base or your employees motivation.
MBA School? If that is what they taught you at MBA School, I would check the quality of paper on your certificate...
Believe what you want Ducky...spend more on advertising when people have less disposable income and face job and oil insecurity...its a good strategy. I can't believe the vast majority of Fortune 500s aren't listening to you! They should check the paper their degrees are printed on I guess.
Anyway, to get back to the OP, my point is that an LLL is likely to represent a new avenue for advertising, replacing an old marketing plan or signnaling a new branding for the company. I just don't think companies are doing that now.....
Now, I do understand that you might not want to rebrand in a recession. Rebranding on an Acronym is going to take oodles of cash, and unless is an abbreviation of a name that is already in place I would think it is a risky strategy.
I do take your point about strategic consolidation. Makes a lot of sense to dispose of business units that have fewer growth prospects to focus on your core activities which hopefully have more. Obscelete products should also be sent to an ealier grave, and yes this sort of thing can help position you for an assault on the markets when the time is more auspicious...
Always nice to end on agreement.
...and good luck to the OP in getting those sold at your price!..
On a sidenote... I am also a big fan of forum tennis...
It may be across the board...economy likely. No queries for any names in 2 months (I have no LLL.coms)..
What's on the domains landing page? Is it parked and if so, with who? Do you have easy access for users to make an offer?.
I get lots of offers and have been selling as well. I do not own any LLL's but those should be the easiest to sell right now.
If you have it parked via Sedo, I would suggest moving it. It's never good when you have to Login or have an account to make an offer.....
I am a bit down on Americas business academia. I was predicting the current crisis at least twelve months before Bernanke woke up and hit the panic button, much to everyone annoyance. History will show that he has actually done quite badly trying to remedy the problem as well. Events will show there is no gain without pain. All he has really done is delayed and increased the economic adjustment that has to be made. The recession will certainly last longer than it needed to and America will emerge greatly weakened.
He will yet be forced to ramp them much higher...
As an active stock trader, everything you said is dead on. Rep added..
Luckily the rest of the world is doing better than America, so there is still someone to buy domains..
I think LLL's are now priced out of range for many domainers.
Any LLL.com holders are at this point holding for serious money and those that purchased at end-user prices aren't reselling.
I expect the LLL.com min to hit $10k shortly. Pretty soon you will be able to decide on a new car or a nice LLL.com.
I don't think the overall economy is effecting the LLL's either. They seem recession proof at the moment. Since they cost nothing to renew there is little incentive to sell cheap. Those that have bought them in the $x,xxx range are not the poor type in need of liquidation. The ones that owned these cheap at low $xxx have imho mostly sold them for mid $x,xxx or higher. I know if I had 10 LLL's from 5 years ago...I would probably only own 1 or 2 right now and would be looking to get $50k+ or hold out forever...
I think the reall problem with LLL is that it has generally not been end users buying. Also they probably don't generate enough revenue to justify the price. End users that will pay the necessary premium don't come along everyday, and are probably in even shorter supply at the moment. End users will pay the money, but unlike speculators they have to be an exact match, and if they are not in a hurry it is going to be a long wait. I think the speculators have largely been priced out of the market for the time being...
I was there and weathered the 1997 and 2000 HostGator busts and held onto all of my domains. I saw what happened to other domainers - it will be much different this time. It will be much, much, much worse. I say prepare for the utter worst and hope for the best. Take some LLL money off the table now to be prepared b/c the offers WILL slow down here soon. The smart money has been flowing to the metals markets ; that should tell you something about HostGator market foreseeable future.
LLL domains will not be all that desired when things go south. Proven money-makers will be hot, not buy and hold domains that you paid $10,000 for and only makes $50 month or less like many LLL's do. The only salvation might be overseas buyers outside the U.S. for these, but if they are paying $10 + a gallon, as some of the most respected analysts have said is coming, it is going to be down market too overseas.
If gas hits $10 a gallon in the U.S. nobody will want any domains except the wealthy that can weather out the storm with no problem. Frank Schilling and Rick Schwartz have been quiet for a reason b/c of the coming HostGator implosion and they want to buy your LLL assets and other domains at 10 cents on the dollar. Some marginal domainers will die off and the screaming on the boards will commence.
I don't mean to be so gloomy, but I truly believe this is coming soon. Six months ago there were those here that said domains were recession-proof. I think the bad economy is beginning to rear it's ugly head with domains and current sales will begin to dry up soon. What happens when we are in recession year number four or five? Who will be surviving then? Right now you can count on your PPC income to keep your assets. Without strong PPC income many will be forced to sell.
Also, with Bush not giving a rats ass about the value of the dollar and no change in the foreseeable future and no changes in energy policy anytime soon, for a myriad of reasons, we will be entering the longest recession this country has ever had.
IMO - Eight Years + of recession with the first four being horrible, and then a slow, slow crawl out of the dumps from there. Take some money now on LLL's while the market is still hot and if you have the money to spare when things get much worse, start buying them for .20 cents on the dollar. People will sell at highway robbery prices when the MUST have the cash to live. There really are not too many "wealthy" domainers. Maybe 300 total ? The rest will sell like crazy when the frenzy begins and everyone panics.
How are you set financially for the coming BIG recession? It's a serious question you should contemplate.
$10 GAS = Consumers totally freezing spending = Very little PPC income = Value of most of your domains dropping drastically.
Think about it. HostGator investors will say "Show me the Money" and if you can't.... then you will have to sell at crying prices..
I can see what your saying but if a buy and hold investor is making $50 a month off of his/her $10,000 LLL.com then they can more than afford the $7 a year renewal fee so the only reason I see for them having to sell (remember they are buy and hold investors) is that they spent more than they could afford to lose, which is the first rule of investing/gambling.
True, but I guarantee you almost all the HostGator "buy and hold" investors are counting in PPC income not to sell HostGator assets, so they did spend more than they could afford to lose. That is why I am saying outside of the 300 (a guess) domainers that are truly wealthy HostGator buyers the rest will have to sell if the economy gets much worse.
If you are only making $50 a month on an LLL's then you will need some other PPC cash-cow domains to make up the slack to have a yearly salary to pay yourself with. These are the bread and butter domains. When the PPC dries up what domains do you think they will sell? I don't think it will be the ones that pay the mortgage. It will be the LLL's and such that can make a difference in their life. I can just see the complaining-depressed-wife-syndrome making some domainers sell so as to maintain the same quality of life they have come to enjoy.
I hope I am wrong..
I get more offers than ever, but, much lower $ than before..
So, I decline flat out!..
This is really strong comment and I will say that the recession wont be that long. Exports are helping our economy. Hopefully, the next president does a better job than Bush.
Maybe the HostGator slow up is also due to summer...
Not going to copy Seabass's comment (I hate to scroll through multiple copies of the same post), but I strongly disagree.
The central engine (beyond incompetence) driving the recession is oil. I think the oil market is very near it's top and will soon plummet. There is no fundamental justification for oil doubling in the last year. Yes, there is some increased demand, but speculators are building mountains where there are only hills. Gravity sooner or later has it's way and it all comes down.
January will bring a new president, and either choice will be a massive improvement.
Even if Israel bombs Iran's nukes, there is little chance those two nations can wage a long distance war for long, and the overall effect will be short lived.
I have been following the metals markets for many years, and I see little reason to think they will go much higher. Growth there has mainly reflected the decline of the dollar, and a bit of speculation...
Good post, accentnepal...
...But, the problem is that the fundamentals that matter are negative, falling, or struggling....property, employment, corporate profits, financial markets etc....And that means confidence is down badly. Economies are only prosperous when people believe, and therefore, invest......In this scenario, domains - another class of investment assets - are, not surprisingly, falling in value, too.
Most areas that are rising in value, have the smell of a 'bubble' about them....oil, metals....and LLL.com domains, too, imo.
And, bubbles always burst...
I feel LLL.coms are grossly overpriced now....A classic 'bubble' investment, right now - driven by speculative domainers....Those that bought & sold over the past 2-3 years have picked the cherry.....Prices for them will crash, as momentum slows, and the domainer market for them dries up....
I think LLL.com buyers will simply vanish at anywhere close to current prices...Starting about now...
There is no bubble in metals if the economy stays bad. The metals markets are where the super-rich put their money. It has burn-down value no matter what happens in any economy and that is where they are putting their money this very moment ahead of the masses.
The U.S. Dollar is backed by no metals. It is backed by consumer confidence and that confidence comes from "deals" the U.S. makes with foreign countries to make the U.S. Dollar the currency of choice around the world, the biggest being the Saudi/U.S. deal where the Saudis only accept U.S.
This was orchestrated by the Kennedy administration and thus the 1'U.S. Dollar was taken off of the Gold Standard and replaced with oil. So the Dollar has a pseudo value that is accepted by the general public.
If the Dollar's decline is not reversed by the next president the Saudis may abandon the Dollar in favor of a more stable currency. They are already grumbling about Bush's poor management of the Dollar. All hell would break loose if they pull the plug on the Dollar. So far they are sticking with us b/c we are the ally that helps keep the royal family in power in return for Dollar support. Raising the Dollar's value is critical b/c they won't ride into the dumps with us and may jump on the Euro. That would be bad.
Aside from oil/dollar problems, I think we have equally as big problems that are weighing us down:.
1. No savers. Now we don't really have the "Great Generation" around anymore since they are dying off and nobody is saving money anymore. That helped keep the dollars value up. Now, one or two financial hiccups in the lives of the new U.S. non-saver generation whether it is caused by worldly factors out of their control or from gluttonous spending and we have a whole generation of collapsed financial futures.
2. Health Care. Costs have skyrocketed in the last 10 years. Who here could afford $30,000 tomorrow if you were diagnosed with Rheumetoid Arthritis in the U.S.? That is what it costs here to treat. I know b/c I paid for a relative to go to Brazil for treatment where it was done for less than $5,000. Or $80,000 for a heart attack in the U.S.? That would destroy most folks.
It costs about $2,800 here with ignorant, rude doctors - quite often. My point is the health care costs here are destroying the average citizen.
3. National Debt. Need I say more really about this. This alone could bring down the U.S. Bush does not want to face it, he just says "lower taxes and keep them that way". All the jobs that low taxes can create is not enough to pay this debt off.
4. Credit Card Debt / Attitudes. Many U.S. citizens think they are entitled to SUV's, $300,000 homes, $30,000 weddings, etc.... Not nearly this many people had this kind of money 20 years ago. I personally don't think it is real wealth.
They are trading the future to live today by borrowing. Will they have saved money for retirement in 20 more years? I bet most here at NamePros don't save either and probably many have tons of credit card debt.
5. Social security problems. Here comes a tidal wave of Baby Boomers. Who is going to pay for them do you think?.
This could go on and on...... and I may be wrong as I have been many times in my life, but I am convinced this time is the real deal and it is going to take years and years to climb out of this pigsty that Bush/Clinton has us wallowing in. I say Clinton b/c he started this and Bush perfected it with shady accounting practices. They are literally lying to us about the financial stablity of the U.S. system. Clinton changed debt accounting practices that had been in place for almost 100 years and Bush continues it to this day.
It will take so many years to straighten this out I don't see much recourse other than tons of pain and adjustment by the U.S. Govt and U.S. Citizens. This is all happening RIGHT NOW and it is real and it has just started. It's time to get tough.
Sell some LLL's now if you have debt or are in a cash-poor position and diversify into other investments, as that may be what saves you...
I assume HostGator is the cheapest advertising, thus any marketing cut should not affect the HostGator business. Also moving online is another way to reduce the cost of doing business. So I assume more business will move to online in recession...
SeaBass I agree with most of what you say - you omitted the US balance of payments - the enormous amount of dollars held by China, Japan, the oil countries and the drug countries (not in that order) - last I heard there were more dollars outside the country than there are inside it.
And it is all a paper game. A dollar can be exchanged for another dollar, nothing more. The only major disagreement I have with you is when that little boy will yell out "But he has no clothes on". (For those who miss the reference, there is an old story of an emperor who had expensive tailors make him a new robe of the finest fabric that everybody assured him was wonderful, even though they could not see it. Nobody wanted to be the one to admit the fraud, until a little boy did and broke the illusion.).
I was into metals in 1979 when there were many people saying that paper money would become worthless, that the Saudis would demand Gold and Silver for their oil, and on it went.
I bought into it. Gold hit $950 (1979 dollars) and silver hit $50.
Then the Chicago commodities board changed their rules, requiring a lot more margin, and prices tanked. The board members, it turns out, had shorted silver just before their rule changes. And no, they did not get in trouble for it.
The dollar will not last forever. But I imagine it will go out through inflation and overall we do not see a lot of that for now. When the guy selling newspapers on the corner gives you a discount if you pay in euros - that is when...
You now have inflation, even if the media reports it is low. The Fed changed the rules recently. They took food and oil out of the CPI index, ( consumer price inflation). So the government can lie about real inflation, reporting we are only getting about 2%. Hello! food and oil are going to the moon!.
Economists say when food and oil is factored in the real inflation rate today is 13%.
With that kind of inflation compounding, cash is not king. You want to get out of cash and into hard assets.
Whats this got to do with domaining? Everything...
Not realistic, advertising is the first thing a lot of companies cut in a downturn...
To answer the intial question.
No ,have not had a solid offer for 3 weeks whereas the first 4 months of this year were excellent with sales just below mid $xx,xxx.
Summertime blues, recession, uncertainty, first black president in the US or a very old man in power come the new year, oil price, middle east war pending, fees at my golf club going up- nothing positive- but wait.
A click of 4.35 euro on Pay-Rate.com , are they going up or down.
This time next year we will all be saying it was not so bad after all (unless the earth has been destroyed by alien beings - again!), it's nothing new boom/bust, part of life's rich tapestry...
Thanks for the laughs Seabass. It's a well laid out post but a lot of opinion. One thing that's obvious but you fail to connect is that domains are an international commodity. If the US tanks or the dollars goes to hell...there are still buyers in other countries and with other currency...
I'm sure there are skilled domainers and/or wealthy domainers who will do just fine during this (recession) period, but for many others out there, it's time to develop one or two quality sites and try to survive...
Interesting and well thought out posts seabass. I think a bit of a reality pill on these names is not uncalled for. Personally I think these names are trading at likely unsustainable levels also. Most of the buyers for 3 letter .com's are Americans, both domainer buyers and enduser buyers.
As far as the $US dollar is concerned, if it goes to hell, that has a major effect on those outside of the US, the value of their investments drops in their home currency and their PPC earnings fall. I think it is not wise to think of these names as an "international commodity"...
Thanks everyone for your posts..
There have been some very interesting issues raised about domains and the economy in general..
One thing I wanted to set straight about my initial post is that I have stopped getting whois e-mails. My offers on Sedo are pretty much unaffected with 95% of them being the standard lowballers.
Seabass - that was a very interesting post. Coming from an investment background I put more emphasis on the opinions of people who have been there for the good times and the bad, I just hope you're wrong on this occasion.
Things might look pretty bleak at present with our economic woes and the inflated oil price. But oil is severely overpriced and the fundamentals behind the rise just don't exist, so at some point it will come crashing down and the shorts will have their moment in the sun..
That aside, more and more economists are predicting a short and shallow downturn - but then again how often do the economists get it right ;-)..
Snoop is right, you never reinforce failure, but you pile it on when times are good. That is taught in business school.
@ labrocca - True, there is a lot of opinion/speculation in what I said. But when you are talking about the future it's never fact. I just feel that we have been delaying the inevitable through market manipulations and U.S. Gov't pandering to those who want things to always be easy b/c people vote for whoever says, "Everything will be great under my leadership", without explaining how. They should be tackling some of the worst problems this country has ever faced, but it is just easier to delay it for the next politician.
International buyers will be affected if there is a world-wide recession - just like us. Maybe even more if U.S. consumers cut off the spending spigot, as we buy more imported products than domestic products, therefore we have a staggering trade deficit we have been struggling with for years. There is that saying, "When the U.S. sneezes the world catches a cold". That may be less true today than say 10 years ago or more, but I imagine it still applies some.
@ staffjam - Yeah, economists are like stock brokers, you have to take what they say with a grain of salt. Again, I could be wrong too just like them...
Offers on my .us names have gone up (not sold any) but the offers are getting better...
Depends which domains you have. Certainly mine are just about worthless to the US market so hopefully yes, they will benefit from the ascendancy of other economies. Follow the Money you say, well much of it has already left and is heading for Eastern Europe and Asia. Much of the rest won't be far behind. Maybe not, but how much Coke would Coca Cola sell if they stopped advertising overnight?.
It is all a question of targeting, but it is even more important to maintain market share in a recession...
With the price of gas, Internet sales should be booming. I'm surprised more newbies with "layoff fears" aren't jumping into the game as an alternative source of income. This wouldn't help top level HostGator sales, but it seems that even the buying and selling of under $50 names has decreased as well...
This is not a six month recession. This will be a total economic meltdown and the world is invited.
Also to those who are parroting the media. Oil is not at the price it is because of speculators. Sure there is some speculation maybe 15%. The main reason is the oil barrel is pegged to the U.S. dollar. That dollar has dropped about 40 % in the last year and is continuing to drop even though the Fed plays market welfare.
The Saudis are basically saying, we sold a barrel of oil last year for $60.00, but now the U.S. dollar has dropped almost fifty percent in the last year so now you must give us twice the amount of U.S. dollars.
The few times Wall St rallied is after the Fed provides more liquidity. For a short term the market gets excited. Then the market realizes that the real problem is the collapse of the dollar and it is not going to get better. That bad news when accounted for pushes down the averages. Forty five thousand Americans just lost their jobs. More pink slips on the way.
Thats the crime really, the smoke and mirrors and lies. Citizens think this is just another recession. Get real, get your house in order. This is not the signs of a recession. This is the big one.
Food, medicine, and supplies should be bought now when they are available. Not when the panic hits. Many who lived thru the great depression say over and over again, " you would not believe how fast it happened".
This one will last well into 2012...
Well if everyone thinks like you it will be the big one, which is why there has been so much lie telling and fudging of figures. The reason that Payroll and Employment stats don't tally is because somebody has been telling lies.
Globally, things won't be as bad as many think. The Chinese and Indian and Eastern European economies are at risk of overheating. Slowdown is good as far as they are concerned. Yes, US trade is important but it is not that important. At present, what has been happening is that these countries and the Middle East have been lending Americans money so they can buy their exports. So they stop lending the money and the Americans stop buying.
A load of skint American spend-thrifts is never going to be an irreplaceable resource!..
Nay, a slowdown in DRT spamming. Like I said in previous post, it's economics in play. The "good steals" of the LLL industry are all gone now. Its futile to email every owner, thus they stopped!!!..
Although I agree on many of your points, I disagree on your notion that "food, medicine, and supplies should be bought now...". If your contention is that this meltdown will last until 2012, just exactly how much "supply" can you store to last 5 years?.
I've seen the same bunker mentality during the time leading up to Y2K era when some famous (and rich) folks were moving to rural areas with guns.....
Coffee, flour, beans, salt, yeast and many more basic foodstuffs store for years perfectly.
Each person can make their decision based on what facts they know. Y2k was not a destruction of the purchasing power of the dollar. I agree that most Americans will continue doing what the ostrich does.
Go in peace, it's your decision and your future...
Agree 100% Jesse. People buy LLL.coms today as an investment they're hardly the kind of domains you expect an enduser to buy off you anytime soon. There are many domainers holding large amounts who aren't particularly in any need for cash and there are many smaller domainers developing their own websites on their LLL.coms, likely taking them off the market permanently or at least for a very long time.
I for one couldn't care less if they crashed down to zero tomorrow mine isn't going on the market either way at any price. If anything, I think we're going to see a large decrease in the value of names sold for their traffic/revenue. These are what's going to get hurt worst imho. Most LLL.coms make chicken feed nobody in their right mind buys an ordinary LLL.com for it's revenue and people who are really hurting for cash probably aren't the types to buy LLL.coms in the first place..
They might go down a bit (or we might see sales being more difficult to make), but I really don't see a sharp devaluation coming to a HostGator forum near you anytime in the near future. I'd be more inclined to suggest top generics get hit than LLL.coms do. The future is full of promise for the great LLL.com..
I think this is what has already happened over the last 6 months...
Exactly my thoughts, word for word. Not to mention wifi hotspots all over cities, offering free internet. So the online customer base will continue to grow, even in a recession-not diminish...
So much negativity. While none of us feel too keen about the US ecomony I do think that domains need to have a partial seperation. They are very much unregulated commodities.
There aren't big wall street firms or banks holding large assets of domains. Name ONE major domaining company that is publicly traded. The dollar and oil all are part of a larger market while domains are something new...something very much intangible. In a way that intangibleness (is that a word?) is what protects them from the markets. A HostGator is $8 to register/renew. Any sound investors that need liquidity do not invest in domains.
There aren't HostGator store fronts costing thousands to keep open. The supply of domains doesn't really rely on oil as much as other industries. Sure the internet requires power but relatively speaking that's a small problem. The internet won't get shut off to save oil. I would rather get rid of my cell phones, TV, and cable than my computers (all 5 of them).
Half way through the year and we have some great sales already. Compare to last year: http://dnjournal.com/archive/domains...harts-2007.htm.
Even if domains drop...I am extremely confident we would see a resurgence in price within 3 years. It's sad if you can't afford $25 for renewal fees on your good domains. 100 domains= $2500 for 3 years. I have 500 and if I need to pan it down to 250....I could do it. We all have a lot of junk in our trunk...
Looking at those charts and auction data it is pretty obvious prices are nowhere near last years levels, examples,.
-107 sales over $100,000 in 2007. We are almost half way through 2008 and we have 38 sales over 100k.
-Auction results with sales totals 1/4th of what was achieved last year ($3million at Traffic versus $8-12million last year).
-Individual names being resold at a loss (eg track.com is the last auction), others unable to sell stuff depite being price below what they paid, eg coed.com sold last year for $88240, the new owner is currently asking $75,000..
-Bids no where near what people paid for names in the past (cd.com, freehoroscope/s.com).
-The highest auction sale this year so far is 300k, last year there was 17 auction sales above that level. Marchex.
Don't worry Ben say there is now little or no chance of a recession. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/americas/7445343.stm.
That dopey tosser needs to get out more!..
Bens couple months of no interest rate change will make everything all right.
The Pres says America's fundamental business is in great shape. On the way out George, take one last look at America's banks...
OK , we needed that , everything is great now then. I would need confirmation from GB before I am totally convinced..
I too think we may be on the verge of a big one.
Oil is inexorably linked to the world economy. It is the life blood of the world at this current time.
Oil = Fuel.
Oil = Hydrocarbons = Fertilizer.
Fertilizers = Food.
Fuel is needed to Grow/Harvest all this food(farm machinery, fishing) along with transport it.
When it becomes a case that it less and less profitable to harvest and transport this food due to increases in fuel prices, food shortage occurs and prices increase.
We have already seen that food prices have increased 40% in some areas of the world. We have seen fishermen and truckers in Europe protest.
When staple prices increase eg. grain, veg. Processed food prices increase.
When people have to choose between feeding their families or going on a holiday/buying a car/buying a TV/going to the cinema I think we all know what choice will be made.
You take out this, what really is non essential consumer spending and you are left with massive job cuts. The housing market is already in turmoil.
Once the big bankers realize that this process is inevitable and that the large market caps that companies have based on forward earnings are rubbish, then thats when you have Meltdown Day.
It will be fast and there will be nowhere to hide, all the money$ (that doesn't actually exist anyway) will be worthless, Lehman Brothers only yesterday announcing that they would have to offset an expected $2.8 billion loss, the same crowd that have been raving on for the last 9 months that everything is rosy.
Anyway I've ranted enough..
I'm not saying it's the end of the world just that we would all be very stupid not to have a backup plan...
People are starting to realize that they are getting hosed for a useless 3 letter HostGator that has no meaning but speculative value. I would rather have a short meaningful name than xyk.com or such.No offence...
The price of the renewal on a name - to keep it through tough times - that you may have invested $x,xxx, or $xx,xxx - is not the main consideration, if things get bad....Its having capital trapped in that name, that you can't turn into liquid cash, if you need that cash for a more urgent purpose. That's the problem.
People's circumstances change, unexpectedly, and fast, in sharp, deep, downturns....People may lose a job, or, their partner does, and there's a need to free up cash...Or, their business declines....Assets decline in value - buyers disappear...Or...Or...Any number of things....And, your cash is trapped. That becomes a real problem.
A Plan B is smart thinking, at this stage of the game, imo.
Someone said that 'Cash is not King' when inflation rises....I don't agree, except in extreme inflationary times....Its right in times of extreme hyper-inflation - like, 10% per month, or 3000% per year (like Zimbabwe)....But, not when inflation runs at, say, 10%-20% per year level.
In recessions, with inflation at anything up to 20% a year - especially deep recessions - cash IS simply king....Because, not only are you then in a position to weather any negative change in your income - and you're not faced with trying to free up cash by selling assets no one wants - but, you are well-placed to buy assets cheaply in the downturn, and give yourself the chance to make super-profits, on any future upturn.
Having a high proportion of your assets in what may well become illiquid assets (ie you can't sell them at any price, or only at vastly decreased prices) - and having limited cash - and being reliant on, say, your income remaining the same, in a sharp downturn - is high risk, imo.
Cash is the best Plan B, imo, on what I'm seeing on the horizon (+ keep only your choicest assets, if you get into a position where you get very cash liquid without selling them).
Yes but don't hold it in US Pesos.
Once the wheels start to come off the link between exchange rate and interest rates will evaporate...
The U.S. is not the only country that has inflated it's money supply.
Your cash is king theory is fine if you live in a country that has no or little debt and it's money supply is hard asset backed.
Do you think if inflation is running higher than 10 or 20 % your government will report it correctly?.
Ballistic Joe, you are getting it...
Actually, I distrust our govenment, as well, but I have more faith in our official statistics. I am fairly confident that figures are being fudged in the US. To be honest the government figures get huge scrutiny in the UK. Our press is not afraid to say it thinks there is a problem, so they would find it pretty hard to manipulate the figures.
As for how things have been handled in terms of bailing out the economy, our government has not shown the largess of of Mr Bernanke.
Yes, they took over Northern Rock. Will the shareholders get any meaningful compensation. I have to say I doubt it. Is it being run as a going concern. Not really, it is effectively under administration. Jobs are haemoraging as it is down sized and the governmernt recoups it's money, whilst the morgtages are transferred out.
I think the US has been far more lax with Bear Stearns, but the big question is who is going to bail out JP Morgan. It seems what was sold as a hot deal, is in fact a hot potato, and this is now being reflected in their share price.
As for other British in trouble, the BOS just raise about 11 Billion so they should be alright for a bit.
The big difference is that the UK Government will make people suffer to control inflation. That lesson was learnt at a very high cost here, which is why our interest rates are still at 5% and will go higher if necessary. Bernanke may try to bluff the foreign exchanges that he is tough of inflation, but frankly his credibility has already been blown. If he bangs interests rates back up to 5%, it will just make bring them down to 2% look totally foolish. He has made his gambit which would never have worked anyway, because the only people prepared to lend to the US at 2% are the Fed, and only then because they can print as much paper as is necessary...
The great depression was started because of PANIC. The market balked. For those spelling out the letters of DOOM you are just adding the level of panic that might arise IF there is a fast downturn.
And if there is a food shortage...it won't be in America. We are plenty fat that we can trim our diets up to 50% probably and still not worry too much. However many skinny nations are going to really feel this. Americans have the money to buy food that other countries can't. We also do produce a large variety of food here...more so than other nations. We package everything.
I ain't worried about food and I got 4 kids. Sure prices are on the rise but how many of you feel a family of 6? I do all the grocery shopping and prices have risen but there are still a LOT of deals in stores weekly. I actually see food getting CHEAPER at times because of the economic downturn. This isn't the USSR....we don't wait in line for bread...
How much debt does the EU have? Or is it in a surplus?..
I think we will see changes in the 3 letter market not necessarily steep declines, but certainly considerably slower growth on the absolute lowest quality LLL.coms. It doesn't make much sense to pay $8000 for QVY.com (no offence if anyone here owns that) when you can have an absolute gem for under double that price. Even names like my BQB which cost me just 1k premium over min wholesale have a heck of alot better resale prospects than does QVY...
CVCV are finally starting to become appreciated for their true worth, I expect many of the higher quality LLLL.coms to follow suit. Compare my IIIT to QVY.. Nobody but a brainwashed domainer is going to say QVY has better resale prospects to an enduser...
Unconfuse me, you are saying that it is easier to type in II and..oh I then T??.
Over QVH? Although I agree it's not worth $8000, a shorter name is worth its' weight (or lack thereof) Why would BQB have "a heck of alot better resale prospect than QVH?" If a site is developed properly, OVY could kick ass over BQB (of course it won't...congrats by the way!!!!!!) but it could!.
I have a few restaurants that would love BBQ and you own BQB...you know the difference in the value of a letter JUST in the right place! Amazing!.
My 1/10 of a gallon of gas...good luck on your new endeavor!...Lookin' Good!..
I expect to see a major decline in LLLL.com value soon, call me crazy, but my guess is that the max the worst will be going for is $15.
I sure hope I'm wrong, but if you think we are in the middle of the slowdown, it's just getting started IMO...
Q and V pretty much never go together and having them in the same LLL.com destroys it's potential use in the large majority of languages and instances.
While parked, it did receive a bit of traffic from people looking for BBQs and someone could easily convert this traffic into being profitable with a business created around it (eg. Better Quality Barbecues).
Of course you're right about any HostGator being capable of achieving incredible things. I know someone on this board was at least at one point getting good traffic to supercalifragilisticexpialidocious.mobi (and I can't believe I spelt that right on my first try!).
Something like QYV would be much more difficult to brand however imho.
BQB - Better/Best/Big Quality Barbecues/Beer/Building/Business/ , etc. In comparison, I really can't think up an acronym for QYV.
You could really stretch that and go with something like "Qualify Your Video" in example, but I think the biggest selling point of a name like QYV is just that it has 3 letters and 3 letter domains are generally more memorable than longer domains. Personally, I wouldn't pay 8k for that.
Interestingly enough, while the low end continues to appreciate, premium LLL.coms have really been stagnating as of late. Back when the min wholesale was 6k, it was hard to get a premium LLL.com under 15k, now the min wholesale is about 8k and still premium LLL.coms can be had for 15k. For the record: Snoop has been saying this for months. And yes, it's starting to look that way. I've been telling people for quite awhile now to not touch the low end until after renewals and we see what happens then...
I agree...junk 4 L's will mean nothing! EVER, I don't know. Trip, Quad and pronouncibles will always hold value...slowdown won't really matter! We still invest!.
Per your post...I also see a major decline in the LLLL market, only because of the low quality of 4's available. The good ones are in someone elses possession...therfore $15 for the crap that is left, is spot on!..
Yea, Thanks for your input. This is what people were saying pre-LLLL.com buyout, that WQZK wouldn't ever be worth reg fee.
Yet just months after the buyout they saw the ugliest combos go for 4x or 5x reg fee.
I'm not just saying that the worst LLLL.com's will loose value, but the best will too...
Oh hell yea, made a ton of money in that era...bought more!!! And lost I am a smarter man, tho!..
Yea, I'm sure you did, a lot of people did in fact do just that...
Time traveler will check back in a few weeks.
Listen carefully and you will hear people talk about parking the car, riding a bike to work. You may hear a lady with one leg say now she has to rely on the food bank for all her groceries as the gas she is buying is taking her grocery money. This is what I am hearing.
Dominos are fun to play. Real life though can have that domino effect and knock down all the standing ones. Money policy actions in the past are now changing everyones future. Reg out your names. Who knows what price a years registration may go too...
Qyv = Quantify Your Value.
As for LLLL's hmm...sure they might not get too far but the same was thought of CCC.com's and they are holding their value very well...
Were many people really saying that about ccc.com when they were bought out? I can't recall it.
In my view the problem with the llll.com's (and the same issues exists with lll.com) is that they kept on rising as the rest of the market was in decline. They rose on positive sentiment and nothing more, eventually the market catches up with itself...